双语 | 北京欢迎你，IMF！如果你十年后要搬来

7月24日，国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁拉加德表示，按照当前经济发展趋势，IMF有可能在未来10年内将总部从华盛顿迁到北京。

此番言论得到各界关注，也表达出IMF对中国经济增长的信心。那么，拉加德为何会这样说？IMF如何看待中、美、英等国的经济表现？IMF对总部地址的设立有何条件？一起来随Yee君一探究竟↓

▲国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) could be based in Beijing in ten years, if the Chinese economy continues its growth momentum and the IMF continues to reform, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said on Monday.

国际货币基金组织（IMF）总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德24日称，如果中国经济继续保持增长势头，且IMF持续改革，IMF总部可能在10年后迁至北京。

"If the trends continue (in terms of growth), it would mean that some of the large emerging market economies which ... are at risk of being under-represented will be better represented in the institution," Lagarde added.

拉加德还说道，“如果这个趋势（增长势头）继续保持的话，有些未被充分代表的主要新兴市场经济体将更加受到重视”。

"If we have this conversation in 10 years' time ... we might not be sitting in Washington, D.C. We'll do it in our Beijing head office," Lagarde said.

拉加德说：“如果我们在10年后进行这场对话，可能不会坐在华盛顿，而是在北京总部。”

One of the top priorities for the IMF in the next decade is to better represent its member economies, said Lagarde at an event held by the Washington-based think tank Center for Global Development in which she envisioned what the IMF might look like in 2027. The articles of the organization say the headquarters should be the country of the member with the largest economy.

拉加德在华盛顿智库全球发展中心参加活动时表示，未来10年，IMF的首要任务之一是更好地代表成员经济体，她还展望了2027年IMF的发展前景。该组织的章程规定，总部应设立在最大的成员国经济体。

Economists estimate that China, with growth rates forecast above 6 percent, will likely overtake US gross domestic product sometime over the next decade to become the world's largest economy in nominal terms. Some, including the IMF, have argued that China already contributes more to global growth on a purchasing power parity basis, which adjusts for differences in prices.

有经济学家预测，随着中国的经济增速预估高于6%，中国的GDP在未来十年内将有可能超过美国，按名义价值计算成为世界第一大经济体。包括IMF在内的一些组织认为，以购买力平价计算，中国对全球增长的贡献已超过美国。购买力平价针对价格差额进行了调整。

“The world is changing, that is No. 1,” Ms. Lagarde said, pointing out that emerging and low-income countries now contribute around 60 percent of total GDP and 80 percent of global growth.

拉加德说：“首先，世界在不断变化。”她指出，如今新兴经济体和低收入国家贡献了全球GDP总量的60%，对全球经济增长的贡献率达到80%。

“No. 2, one needs to look at the deeds more than the creeds and what is actually being done. Where is money actually being invested?”

“其次，人们需要更多关注行动，而非口号。看看哪些事情正在落实，钱都投到了哪些地方。”

And since President Trump gained the White House on an anti-globalization platform, pledging to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement and rewrite longstanding trade agreements, world leaders, including Ms. Lagarde, have closely observed the changing global role of the United States.

特朗普总统凭借反全球化的政治纲领入主白宫，誓要退出巴黎气候变化协定，并重新拟定长久以来的贸易协议，自此包括拉加德在内的全球很多领导人开始密切关注美国国际角色的变化。

Speaking to a packed audience in the capital, Ms. Lagarde did play down the impact of the United States pursuing an agenda that diverged from that of the I.M.F.

拉加德在华盛顿向众多听众表示，即使IMF的发展计划和美国秉承的发展道路背道而驰，由此带来的影响也无足轻重。

Despite Ms. Lagarde’s comments, analysts point out the United States’ veto power at the I.M.F. gives Washington a crucial role in the institution. The fund’s leadership is careful to keep the White House on its side following every change in administration.

分析人士指出，尽管拉加德持这种观点，但美国在IMF的否决权依然决定了华盛顿在这个机构中发挥着重要的作用。伴随着美国政府的每一次换届改变，IMF领导层始终小心翼翼地与白宫的政见保持一致。

In her remarks on Monday, Ms. Lagarde also discussed the IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook, in which it forecast 3.5 percent growth in the global economy this year, picking up to 3.6 percent in 2018.

在24日的讲话中，拉加德还谈到IMF最新发布的《世界经济展望》，预测今年全球经济增长为3.5%，到2018年将增至3.6%。

It revised its forecasts downward for Britain, given the risks around Brexit, and for the United States, given what Ms. Lagarde labeled “less obvious fiscal development and less rapid infrastructure investment than we had initially thought.”

鉴于脱欧的风险，报告下调了对英国经济增长的预期；同时，美国增长预期也被下调，因为拉加德称美国的“财政发展和基建投资未能达到我们的预期”。

She identified the major medium-term risks to the world economy as inequality, the “backlash” against globalization, international trade and technological breakthroughs.

她认为世界经济主要的中期风险是不平等，以及对全球化、世界贸易和技术突破的“抵触”。

She warned of those who feel left behind by globalization — those who feel “there is nothing there for them, as a result of which, populist voices can actually carry the day and prevail over other forces” — a group political analysts have identified as driving Mr. Trump’s win in November.

她提醒落伍的人跟随全球化的步伐，这些人往往认为“自己从中得不到任何好处，因此，民粹主义的呼声甚至能大大压过其他呼声”。一些政治分析人士认为，正是这种呼声促成了特朗普在去年十一月的胜利。

IMF简介

The IMF, also known as the Fund, was conceived at a UN conference in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, United States, in July 1944. The 44 countries at that conference sought to build a framework for economic cooperation to avoid a repetition of the competitive devaluations that had contributed to the Great Depression of the 1930s.

1944年7月，44个国家的代表在美国新罕布什尔州布雷顿森林镇召开了联合国会议，宣布成立国际货币基金组织（简称IMF），旨在构建经济合作框架，避免导致20世纪30年代大萧条的竞争性贬值重蹈覆辙。

The IMF's responsibilities: The IMF's primary purpose is to ensure the stability of the international monetary system—the system of exchange rates and international payments that enables countries (and their citizens) to transact with each other. The Fund's mandate was updated in 2012 to include all macroeconomic and financial sector issues that bear on global stability.

IMF的职责：IMF的首要目标是确保全球金融制度运作正常，通过汇率和国际收支制度保证国家（和公民）间的正常交易。2012年，IMF的职能有所扩大，包括所有可能影响全球稳定的宏观经济和金融业事务。

英文来源：环球时报、纽约时报、路透社、IMF官网等

编译：Janet、阿狸、Yoyo

推荐阅读